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Inverse movie speculation effect?
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lw99dds
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Joined: 21 Aug 2014
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:02 pm    Post subject: Inverse movie speculation effect? Reply with quote

Apologies if this has been discussed before.

I've been thinking...Inhumans keys have seen a dramatic increase in interest and price. This change has been based largely on rumors of a big Marvel Studios movie. The Inhumans are C, perhaps even D list Marvel characters from a pure comic book POV no? There are other characters in similar positions Guardians, Iron Fist, Luke Cage. All lower rung characters that have become hot based on the movie/tv effect.

Surely the new found interest in these characters is not all additive. Some of it must come at the expense of other, more popular from a pure comic book standpoint, characters.

If so, which characters are being hurt by this? Probably those that haven't seen any, let alone as much, of a lift from the movie/tv effect. Perhaps even characters that have been hurt by the movie/tv effect.

Are there keys that are undervalued because of a combination of increased interest in these "lesser" characters and a rights situation that prevents a movie / a poorly executed movie?

Some books that may fit this model:

- Marvel Spotlight #5
1st Ghost Rider. Two bad movies have tarnished the character. No talk of any future appearances in film or tv. However, has been a popular and well known character in comic books. Rumors that Marvel Studios now own the rights.

- Fantastic Four #48
1st Silver Surfer & Galactus. One bad movie. A reboot that seems to be trying to stay under the radar. Rumblings that the reboot is poor. No talk of an appearance in the new movie. Not part of the Marvel Cinematic universe. However, has been popular and well known characters in comic books.

- Amazing Spider-Man #129
1st Punisher. Two bad movies. No talk of any future appearances in film or tv. However, has been a popular and well known character in comic books. Rumors that Marvel Studios now own the rights.

- Fantastic Four #4
1st Silver Age Namor. No talk of any future appearances in film or tv. Not part of the Marvel Cinematic universe. However, has been a somewhat popular and well known character in comic books.

Thoughts? Do you agree/disagree? Are there other books you would suggest?
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Quill and Tankard
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Really like where you're going here and to put it in stock market terms I think what you're describing is the "contrarian" viewpoint. That is look for quality books that are out of favor so to speak. Eventually the cream will rise to the top.

Ghost Rider and Punisher seem like particular no brainers to me in the long run as their rights have already reverted to Marvel.
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whetteon
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, this is indeed an interesting idea. We should follow this trail. I'll look up on GPA if the prices have been effected after the movie was shown in the theaters and if it was, by how much. Think Thumbs Up
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whetteon
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spotlight #5 CGC 9.4 appears to be selling at $1,400. I do see a dip in prices around 2007 when the movie came out. It tanked the comic and the box office. A 9.4 was valued at the same price in '07 as today, 7 years later. Think

Fantastic Four #48 CGC 9.4 is currently @ $3,195. Likewise this comic had a small bump in '07 when that turd of a movie FF 2 came out. A CGC 9.4 dropped just slightly under $2K after strong sells of $2K or more before the movie release. It appears however that this comic has already made up it's dip in price.

Amazing Spider-Man #129 CGC 9.4 is @ a volatile $1,500 (meaning it goes up and down by hundreds per sale.) In 2004 it was selling for $1000 and dropped $200 to $800 after the Punisher movie came out.


Preliminary data suggest that lw99dds theory may have some merit. Think Very interesting. I think this is huge for us investor types. Find keys, wait for the movie to tank and buy them all up! Thumbs Up
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rustystaples
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Punisher with Tom Jane was awesome. Loved it.

And one of the Winter Soldier movie creative team said that our good friend Frank Castle was in that movie, but behind the scenes.

http://comicbook.com/2014/09/14/was-the-punisher-being-established-in-captain-america-the-winter/

Captain America is a hugely important MCU character, but Avengers #4 has kind of lagged. So not sure if we can tie FF #4 interest to any Namor MCU appearance.
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Rai-fan
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 21, 2014 2:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My picks are more of the "rising tide lifts all boats" mentality. Look for major Silver keys that already had movie appearances but will soon be re-booted.

So 18 months ago at the top of the list were:

Daredevil 1
Hulk 1
FF 1

All of those have risen precipitously during this timeframe -- all on new movie announcements.

So now the list includes:

FF 1 (still - I think the movie will be good & surprise a lot of people)
X-Men 1 (lull between movies)
Showcase 22 (GL, son!)

While I might be able to afford a 3.0 FF # 1, even a 2.5 Hulk 1 is now out-of-range for me & I think Hulk 1 will soon surpass AF 15 as the key SA key.

Still love The Flash & am sorry to have sold my 3.0 Showcase 4 prior to the current price run-up.

Now might even be the time to get in on books like JIM 83 or Iron Man 1 -- take advantage of the momentary market lull, while the market's chasing the newest speculative movie announcements.
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whetteon
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rai-fan wrote:

Now might even be the time to get in on books like JIM 83 or Iron Man 1 -- take advantage of the momentary market lull, while the market's chasing the newest speculative movie announcements.


You Won the Prize!

That's been my plan man. The Brave and Bold #28 was the first of what I hope will be many Silver Age key purchases.
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aaronchua
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

But BnB 28 doesn't follow from this discussion. In fact, it is the reverse. It is a hot book due to the movie so it is based on price momentum, rather than buying on the lull?
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aaronchua
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CGC board had this interesting poll so what will be the next big key after Hulk #1. How do u guys feel?


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whetteon
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

aaronchua wrote:
But BnB 28 doesn't follow from this discussion. In fact, it is the reverse. It is a hot book due to the movie so it is based on price momentum, rather than buying on the lull?


Embarassed
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whetteon
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm going to put money into TOS #39. Here's why:

Iron Man was almost a B level character until Robert Downy Junior propelled him to stardom. Now he's been part of three hundred million dollar movies, a main character in Avengers (one of the MOST successful movies) and the topic of countless Halloween and Cosplay costumes, this is the guy everyone wants to be.

So how important do you think his rare and hard to come by 1st app is going to be? I say pretty damn improtant.
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whetteon
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Back to the original topic. Surely Showcase #22 and Green Lantern #1 have fell slightly due to lack luster movie presence. Perhaps it's time to buy in February? Either that or Daredevil #1. But I've seen some upward price movements on Daredevil already.
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lw99dds
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seems to be quite a bit of speculation on Daredevil these days. Lots of people hoping the TV show works.

SC 22 and GL 1 are great options. The previous movie killed demand. We know a new movie has been announced but it's years away. Many don't even think WB will actually release it. On the other hand, GL is one of DCs big guns, he's a staple JLA member and will likely be in the new Superman movie. Also, you've got to expect that Geoff Johns will use his position to help GL along.

The DC and Marvel slate announcements create a slew of new opportunity. For speculation and just for plain old collecting. It's a great time to buy Marvel Spotlight 5, ASM 129, Tomb of Dracula 10, Strange Tales 135, Tales of Suspense 52 and 57, Silver Surfer 1, Fantastic Four 48 etc.

All marque books that every good collection would be happy to have regardless of movies.
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aaronchua
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rather than simply naming books, I love to see someone try to give a range of what is the potential gain for each of each books. Estimates can be from GPA high or benchmarking against some current hot book.

For example, let's say showcase 22 4.0. Can it reach TOS 39 levels?
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lw99dds
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2014 12:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apologies about naming books. I thought I was helping. So many times on boards like this people are shy about naming the books so that others don't compete against them.

Part of my argument is that speculation doesn't have to apply here. These are all key books that don't have a movie speculation spotlight on them. The prices are about as cheap as they are going to be. Unless there is a crash, I don't see these books dropping.

As for potential gains, I would say yes SC 22 has the potential to reach TOS 39 levels if the films have the same success. if WB releases a Green Lantern movie that's as successful as the first Iron Man film and spawns sequels and shared universe films then absolutely yes. Green Lantern is one of the biggest characters in comics.
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